Snow Returning

Snow Returning

The last four days of January saw around two feet of snow across much of Star Valley, but so far February has seen little snow and quite a bit of winter sun.  Below is a graph from the Thayne ES for the past several weeks.  The  data displayed is the solar energy and temperatures for the period from January 9-February 6.

Thayne ES Solar Energy and Temperature

A large upper trough approaching the Pacific Northwest this Wednesday Evening  will return at least some snow across Star Valley by this coming weekend

Wednesday evening water vapor image  

The trough shows up as the 500mb analysis Wednesday evening is overlaid on the infra-red satellite imagery

Wednesday evening  infrared satellite  and 500mb analysis

The models are forecasting the trough to deepen over the western states the next two days with snow spreading eastward. Early indications are that the greatest potential for heavy snow will pass to the south of Star Valley.

The 500mb forecast valid mid day Friday  shows the deepening of the trough.

500mb forecast mid day Friday Feb. 8 2013

The model forecast of precipitation for the 48 hour period through mid day Friday suggest that much of the snow will have occurred to the west and southwest of Star Valley.

48 hour precipitation ending mid day Friday

The following 48 hour period through mid day Sunday sees the strong trough moving eastward into the Plains States with precipitation spreading across much of Wyoming, the heaviest likely south of Star Valley where upper support is located.

500 mb forecast mid-day Sunday Feb.10 2012
48 hour precipitation ending mid day Sunday

An interesting way to look at the forecast weather for Star Valley is an hourly graph of temperatures and precipitation.  The following two graphs show the period from Thursday morning to Saturday morning in the first and then Saturday morning to Monday morning in the second

6am Thursday through 6am Saturday
6am Saturday through 6am Monday

This forecast suggest snow will begin mid day Friday, continuing until early Sunday morning. This forecast also suggests that total snow accumulation will just be a few inches, and this seems reasonable given how far south the main energy with the trough will track.