Dangerous Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Weekend in the Central U.S.

Dangerous Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Weekend in the Central U.S.

Potentially dangerous severe thunderstorms are forecast for parts of the Central U.S. this coming weekend.  Tornadoes are likely along with large hail and damaging winds.  While still too early to pinpoint the area with the greatest threat the Storm Prediction Center has raised awareness in their 4-8 day outlook issued today.

 
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

   VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ..SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE MS
   VALLEY AND MID SOUTH ON MONDAY...STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...

   MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
   ECMWF DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE 500MB EVOLUTION OF
   WRN U.S. TROUGH.  CONCERNS REGARDING POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONG
   SWLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ABATED THIS MORNING.  LATEST GUIDANCE DEEPENS
   LEE CYCLONE OVER SERN CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT
   INTO WRN KS ON SUNDAY.  INTENSE 500MB SPEED MAX APPROACHING 90KT
   SHOULD ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER THEN
   EJECT INTO SWRN KS EARLY SUNDAY.  AS A RESULT SFC LOW IS NOT
   EXPECTED TO ADVANCE APPRECIABLY EWD UNTIL LATER MONDAY AS SECONDARY
   MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DEVELOPS FROM NORTH TX INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER
   VALLEY.

   MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG ERN PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES.  STRONGLY
   DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENCOURAGE VIGOROUS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
   FROM PORTIONS OF WCNTRL TX...NWD INTO KS.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

   IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL MIX SUNDAY AS
   LOWEST PRESSURES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN
   KS.  MODELS MIX DRYLINE EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK BY 18Z
   SUNDAY BUT THE DAY5 FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR DRYLINE NOT MIXING
   ACROSS THE PLAINS AS FAST AS MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT.  AS A
   RESULT...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
   MOIST/BUOYANT WARM SECTOR AND ANOTHER DIURNALLY-INITIATED ROUND OF
   POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE.

   LATER MONDAY IT APPEARS THE SFC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD ADVANCE INTO
   THE MS VALLEY.  SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT FROM LA...NWD INTO MO AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS MIDDLE
   TN.  TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WARM-SECTOR
   CONVECTION.

   ..DARROW.. 04/23/2014

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