
Severe Thunderstorms Possible Star Valley later Wednesday
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman OK has forecast the potential for a few severe thunderstorms to move across southeastern Idaho into Western Wyoming, including Star Valley later this afternoon.
Following are the associated graphics with the forecast.
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Severe Weather Forecast for August 5 2015 |
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Damaging wind Potential
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Following is the meteorological reasoning for the forecast
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2015 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ID/WY/MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NORTHERN AR... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM OK INTO THE TN VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A COUPLE OF STRONGER CELLS POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ...MID MS VALLEY... A REMNANT MCS IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF AR/OK/MO...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL AR TODAY. STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. STORMS MAY RE-INTENSIFY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS LATER TODAY...POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD FROM THE MCS ACROSS PARTS OF TN/KY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE MORE DISORGANIZED AND TRANSIENT. NEVERTHELESS...THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. ...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO ID... WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NV. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS ID/UT THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING LIFT AND FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ID BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST WY. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT...COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN CONSISTENCY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF FORCING WITH TERRAIN...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE REGION TO SLGT RISK. ..HART/PICCA.. 08/05/2015